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(Published without fear nor favor)
(Published without fear nor favor)
OPEC cuts production;
oil-producing nations - winners & losers
Oil prices are rising because Saudi Arabia has cut its crude oil production in an attempt to avoid another glut that could put downward pressure on the price of oil. Led by Saudi Arabia, OPEC's concerted effort to prevent an oil glut and lift oil prices is working in the short-run, but some oil producing nations benefit from the Organization's production cuts more than others.
Increased value of exports when production is cut, by country:
Increased value of exports when production is cut, by country:
However, perhaps no country benefits from OPEC production cuts more than US energy companies. The OPEC-induced inventory drop — and accompanying price rise — comes despite an aggressive increase in US oil output to a record high of 10.5 million barrels of oil per day (mbpd). |
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SPECIAL REPORT - THE CONFLICTING NATURE OF
NATURAL GAS INFRASTRUCTURE AND SUPPORTIVE POLICY IN THE U.S.
(Many thanks to our friends at Texas lng for helping us understand this complex topic;
please contact us if you would like to know more about texas lng, llp.)
On June 29, 2017, President Trump announced that a primary policy of his administration is the pursuit of "energy dominance." Without question, a key market that could deliver his ambitious objective is natural gas. However, his ambition to flood the world with cheap natural gas has stalled, and some of the damage is self-inflicted. Most immediately, the U.S. has a shortage of facilities along the coasts to export liquefied natural gas, or LNG — the chilled, liquid form to which gas must be converted for shipment in giant tanker vessels across the sea.
The U.S. has only two major LNG export facilities in operation today, with another four set to enter service by the end of 2019. Four others have earned regulatory approval, and their developers are making final investment decisions on whether to build their planned facilities based on whether they can secure contracts for the gas they hope to provide.
But more than a dozen other facilities are awaiting permit approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), a backlog that the panel is struggling to meet because of a manpower shortage and other issues. In fact, it’s been three years since FERC approved a new LNG export terminal.
The U.S. has only two major LNG export facilities in operation today, with another four set to enter service by the end of 2019. Four others have earned regulatory approval, and their developers are making final investment decisions on whether to build their planned facilities based on whether they can secure contracts for the gas they hope to provide.
But more than a dozen other facilities are awaiting permit approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), a backlog that the panel is struggling to meet because of a manpower shortage and other issues. In fact, it’s been three years since FERC approved a new LNG export terminal.
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Export Terminals, U.S.
CURRENTLY IN OPERATION
NOTE: IMPORT TERMINALS NOT INCLUDED IN THE ABOVE LIST, THOUGH A PARTIAL LIST IS IN THE CHART TO THE RIGHT. FOR MORE INFORMATION, AES PROVIDES ACCESS TO A PRIVATE FERC INFOGRAPHIC Canada APPROVED – NOT UNDER CONSTRUCTION
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The following is a partial check-list of steps involved in Phase I and II:
1. Applicant assesses market need and considers project feasibility; prepares report that validates market need
2. Applicant applies to submit application through FERC's Pre-Filing Process
3. FERC reviews the application to submit a formal NEPA Pre-Filing application
4. Upon receiving pre-filing approval, FERC issues docket number to applicant
5. Applicant completes and submits studies of potential site locations
6. Applicant identifies Stakeholders
7. Applicant holds open house to discuss project
8. The FERC participates in Applicant's open house
9. The FERC issues Notice of Intent for preparation of an EIS opening the scoping period to seek public comments
10. Applicant conducts route studies and field surveys. Develops application
11.The FERC holds public scoping meeting(s) and site visits in the project area. Consults with interested stakeholders.
12. Applicant files formal application with the FERC
13. The FERC issues formal Notice of Application
14. The FERC issues Schedule for Environmental Review (“SER”)
15.The FERC analyzes data and prepares Draft EIS
16. The FERC issues Draft EIS and opens comment period
17. The FERC holds public comment meetings on the Draft EIS in the project area
18. The FERC responds to comments and revises the Draft EIS
19.The FERC issues Final EIS
20. The FERC Issues Order (Notice to Proceed with conditions or Deny) - more often than not, applicants receive an "order to proceed with revisions."
21. Parties can request the FERC to rehear decision and submit revisions
22. Applicant submits outstanding information to satisfy conditions of the FERC Order
23. The FERC issues Notice to Proceed with construction permits to begin site preparation
Note: The liquefied natural gas market is growing every year, but the terminals that ship and receive the fuel are shrinking. New modular-style designs snap together like Legos, allowing for assembly of small to mid-scale liquefaction or regasification plants that can be expanded if and when demand grows. Indeed, in 2008, the average contract was for 18 years and more than 2 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa). By 2016, it had dropped to less than eight years and less than 1 Mtpa, with new buyers in emerging markets like China, India and Pakistan seeking flexibility due to market uncertainty.
Special Report - The next "new-New Thing" in batteries and storage
Many see "batteries" and/or "storage" as the holy grail for energy, but one particular hurdle creates an innovative logjam - access to plentiful rare earth metals ("REM"). Skeptics point to a price problem with lithium, while others say that the real market danger is with cobalt: demand for the latter metal is affecting battery markets and increases the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s geopolitical stranglehold on supplies. This might seem like a major threat to the lithium-ion energy storage business, but it’s not, for the simple reason that not all lithium-ion batteries need cobalt. Lithium iron phosphate (LFP), lithium manganese oxide (LMO), and lithium titanate (LTO) batteries are cobalt-free. The catch is that their energy density is lower than that of lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) or lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide (NCA) chemistries. This can make LFP, LMO and LTO batteries somewhat limited for use in electric vehicles, although these chemistries can still be used in some vehicle electrification if combined with other ingredients. Despite their lower energy density, LFP batteries “are definitely safer and offer a cycle life similar to the more common NMC batteries. Plus, they work especially well for stationary storage and there are many companies and sources that offer plentiful supply.
The following are 11 LFP battery ventures to watch:
Note: Besides the above non-cobalt lithium-ion battery makers, it is worth noting that companies such as Tesla/Panasonic, LG Chem, Samsung and SK Innovation are looking at low-cobalt alternatives to the traditional NMC mix. The classic 1:1:1 NMC chemistry has equal measures of nickel, manganese and cobalt. But increasingly, manufacturers are moving to an 8:1:1 recipe with eight parts of nickel for each part of cobalt. In addition to the more established names listed above, the Israel-based startup StoreDot deserves an honorable mention as a new market entrant working to advance cobalt-free chemistries, similar to Conamix and Ionic Materials. Also, while California-based SimpliPhi Power doesn’t make its own battery cells, it does make “efficient, nontoxic and enduring” LFP products. Recentlyl, SimpliPhi teamed up with OutBack Power of Arlington, Washington D.C., to launch a residential energy storage system for the European market.
The following are 11 LFP battery ventures to watch:
- AESC - Nissan and NEC’s Automotive Energy Supply Corporation makes combined LMO-lithium nickel oxide cells
- BYD - The Chinese storage giant BYD has a line of NMC products for its electric vehicle business. Last month it unveiled plans for a new Chinese plant with 24 gigawatt-hours of production capacity a year, as part of a road map to reach 60 gigawatt-hours by 2020.
- CALB - The China Aviation Lithium Battery Co. makes LFP and NMC lithium-ion batteries. It was the tenth-largest supplier of electric bus batteries in China last year.
- CATL - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. is preparing to set up new manufacturing plants in China and Germany. CATL makes both LFP and NMC batteries for the electric bus market.
- Conamix - Ithaca, New York startup Conamix has been cagey about its cobalt-free lithium-ion battery technology, but rumors are positive.
- Ionic Materials - In search of the "holy grail" battery for electric vehicles, the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance invested in Ionic Materials, a startup developing solid-state cobalt-free battery materials. Ionic Materials has specifically created a solid plastic electrolyte to replace the unstable liquid electrolyte in a battery. The company doesn't quite qualify as a battery manufacturer, but its technology supports the development of solid-state lithium-ion cells with little to no cobalt in their cathodes. Then the French oil and gas company Total purchased a stake in the Massachusetts-based startup for an unknown sum.
- Lishen - Chinese battery maker Tianjin Lishen Battery makes LFP batteries with MesoCarbon MicroBead anodes for electric vehicles.
- Lithium Werks - Fast-growing LFP battery maker Lithium Werks bought another LFP manufacturer, Valence Technology and also picked up A123’s Chinese manufacturing plants.
- Murata - Sony became the first company in the world to commercialize lithium-ion batteries back in 1991. Despite its early start, Sony decided to exit the battery manufacturing game with the sale of its lithium-ion battery business to Japan’s Murata Manufacturing. Murata’s energy storage modules are built from olivine-type LMP batteries.
- Saft - French battery maker Saft makes LMO batteries and what it calls "Super Lithium Iron Phosphate’ cells" which it says have a superior performance compared to standard products. Saft’s LFP-based Flex’ion systems can scale up to 2.3 megawatts and 500 kilowatt-hours.
- Toshiba - Japanese conglomerate Toshiba makes LTO batteries for vehicle, industrial and infrastructure applications.
Note: Besides the above non-cobalt lithium-ion battery makers, it is worth noting that companies such as Tesla/Panasonic, LG Chem, Samsung and SK Innovation are looking at low-cobalt alternatives to the traditional NMC mix. The classic 1:1:1 NMC chemistry has equal measures of nickel, manganese and cobalt. But increasingly, manufacturers are moving to an 8:1:1 recipe with eight parts of nickel for each part of cobalt. In addition to the more established names listed above, the Israel-based startup StoreDot deserves an honorable mention as a new market entrant working to advance cobalt-free chemistries, similar to Conamix and Ionic Materials. Also, while California-based SimpliPhi Power doesn’t make its own battery cells, it does make “efficient, nontoxic and enduring” LFP products. Recentlyl, SimpliPhi teamed up with OutBack Power of Arlington, Washington D.C., to launch a residential energy storage system for the European market.
Special report:
initial observations from our ongoing study of
the Silicon Valley-based energy-innovation ecosystem
Contact us if you are interested in the forthcoming publication
- Within Silicon Valley, there are a three exceptional late-stage micro-ecosystems, two of which have been influenced by nearby research universities: (Berkeley/Oakland; and, Palo Alto, with an emphasis on comp-sci and finance), and San Francisco, which has benefited from a unique density of talents that have fostered a mature energy-innovation ecosystem in isolation from all other regions.
- Some micro-ecosystems have a healthy density of early-stage startups but lack a concentration of late-stage companies. Of these there are two that stand-out above all others: Fremont and Sunnyvale, with an emphasis on autotech, and San Jose, which doesn't seem to have a particular focus, but has a general interest in IIoT (industry).
- Some regions with low late-stage density or healthy early-stage tendencies could indicate potential for future growth. Of these, the most notable are Redwood City and Morgan Hill.
- Proximity to capital is necessary but expensive. Palo Alto overcomes this obstacle by connecting closely with Stanford - apparently, the vast-pool of talent compensates and is compensated; San Francisco's wide variety of energy-interests helps keep its innovation-base strong in spite of the extraordinary cost of doing business.
- Entrepreneurial experience is relatively equal across all regions, but talent has clustered. Regarding local talent, the proportion of startup founders who previously founded another energy-related company is nearly 2:1 in and around Palo Alto and Berkeley/Oakland, indicating greater success rates for start-ups in these two regions. However, local talent retention is more variable and perhaps more important, which is what sets San Francisco apart from all other micro-regions in Silicon Valley - in other words, people who live in and work for an energy-venture in San Francisco tend to remain in The City, even if they change jobs.
- Perhaps the most under-performing energy-region in Silicon Valley is the San Ramon-metro, which is ironic because this region also has the largest energy-interest in the entire Valley - Chevron. Though too early to say with certainty, it appears that Chevron (and other large companies, like GE) are region-agnostic and less concerned with developing the local ecosystem, in contrast to other large energy companies, like PG&E in San Francisco, which has developed and supported close ties to its local economies and therefore has helped foster the development of new ventures, especially those that focus on efficiency and software.
- The energy ecosystem in Silicon Valley is very strong; however, there is one structural weakness - a myopic view of energy generation that over-emphasizes "solar power," which draws talent and capital away from other important interests that have very little influence in the Valley, such as nuclear power (Oklo and Kairos), carbon capture (Opus 12), and natural gas (Chevron).
- Let us know if you would like an advanced copy of the Executive Summary for our forthcoming report on the Silicon Valley energy-ecosystem, scheduled for publication September, 2018; also available is a comprehensive directory of all energy-ventures.
- Contact us if you are interested in knowing more about our work on energy-innovation ecosystems, or if you have interest in other ecosystems (forthcoming: Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., Boston, Denver, Seattle, etc.)
Note: Our study relies heavily on two sources in particular:
- “Regional Advantage” by AnnaLee Saxenian as a theoretical model (that cultural influences such as intellectual openness and collaboration play a key role in the development of innovative ecosystems)
- The entrepreneurial ecosystem framework developed by the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation (“Measuring an Entrepreneurial Ecosystem,” Kauffman Foundation Research Series on City, Metro, and Regional Entrepreneurship, Dane Stangler & Jordan Bell-Masterson, March 2015)
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