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Daily Dose: February 18, 2019 Fuel Supply Shortages in the US And One Addition |
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Fuel supply concerns are emerging in New England and Southern California where NG infrastructure is insufficient to keep up with demand; whereas, coal retirements appear likely to cause generation gaps in the Midwest and Desert Southwest.
ISONE (New England) is the only market with forecast net capacity additions by 2022, with the US as a whole forecast to lose 12-24 GW of generation. Additions of planned generation over the last three quarters consist almost exclusively of renewable energy plants.
With ERCOT, MISO, and the Desert Southwest needing capacity this year and next, can renewable energy, or any power source, keep up?
ISONE (New England) is the only market with forecast net capacity additions by 2022, with the US as a whole forecast to lose 12-24 GW of generation. Additions of planned generation over the last three quarters consist almost exclusively of renewable energy plants.
With ERCOT, MISO, and the Desert Southwest needing capacity this year and next, can renewable energy, or any power source, keep up?
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The ISONE market (New England): an abundance of excess capacity!
Fuel Type - Capacity MW
Notes:
The New England fuel supply can project a significant abundance of excess capacity - peak demand in New England, historically, is less than 30,000 MW, and going down.
- Natural Gas - 7551
- Hydro - 357
- Battery Storage - 3456
- Solar - 3144
- Wind - 10190
Notes:
- Factor in approx. 1,800 MW of forecasted new solar capacity raises the total amount of new capacity to 26,498.
- Add the total amount of existing capacity of approx. 31,300 MW.
- Projected supply capacity in 2023: 57,798 MW
The New England fuel supply can project a significant abundance of excess capacity - peak demand in New England, historically, is less than 30,000 MW, and going down.
Special Report: all 15 energy/environment scotus cases
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Of the 15 SCOTUS energy/environment cases under consideration, the justices have decided only one (issuing a November ruling that remanded a closely watched Endangered Species Act fight to a lower court). What makes the upcoming session more compelling is the uncertainty surrounding Justice Kavanaugh replacing Justice Kennedy, especially in light of questions about federalism and the division of power between federal and state governments? Before he was confirmed, there a 4-4 split between sympathetic versus skeptical judges.
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On the docket...
- Kisor v. Wilkie: The biggest administrative law case set for arguments this spring is a fight over agency deference standards. The dispute involves veterans' benefits but centers on a broader question of whether the Supreme Court should overrule what's known as Auer deference, which directs judges to defer to an agency's reasonable interpretation of its own ambiguous regulation. If the Supreme Court overrules the standard, experts expect judges to apply more scrutiny to certain agency actions, and they expect federal agencies to start writing clearer regulations. Arguments are March 27.
- Parker Drilling v. Newton: The court last month agreed to take up a challenge to an appeals court ruling that state wage-and-hour laws extend to work conducted on federally controlled seabed. The case comes as the Trump administration is preparing to release the next iteration of its five-year plan to lease more than 90 percent of available federal offshore tracts for oil and gas development. Arguments have not yet been scheduled.
- Gundy v. United States: One of the first cases the Supreme Court heard in October involved a wonky constitutional law issue that could affect federal laws and agency power. The dispute involves a much broader question of just how much decisionmaking power Congress can delegate to administrative agencies.
- Knick v. Township of Scott, Pa.: The justices have heard oral arguments twice this term in this property rights case — the first time before Kavanaugh was confirmed. At issue is how landowners get to court when they think a local government agency has taken their property. The outcome could affect challenges to environmental rules.
- Washington State Department of Licensing v. Cougar Den Inc.: A state gasoline tax and tribal treaty rights are head-to-head in this dispute. Washington state wants businesses to pay up when transporting fuel across state lines, but the company involved says it's exempt from the gas tax because of treaty language giving the Yakama Nation access to public highways.
- Budha Ismail Jam v. International Finance Corp.: The Supreme Court's fall schedule also featured a fight over a coal-fired power plant in India. The main legal issue is whether Indian villagers can file a lawsuit against the International Finance Corp., an arm of the World Bank Group, for funding the project.
- Sturgeon v. Frost: An unusual case involving a hovercraft-riding moose hunter in Alaska returned to the Supreme Court this term after first being considered a few years ago. The litigation involves public lands, water rights and constitutional questions. The justices' final ruling could have impacts in Alaska and beyond.
- Virginia Uranium Inc. v. Warren: Another environmental case from the fall has an important federalism connection, as a Virginia firm fights for the right to produce uranium in the state. The state has long prohibited the process, but the company and the Trump administration say the mining ban treads on the federal government's turf.
- Herrera v. Wyoming: State wildlife rules, federal lands and tribal treaties were at issue in this case involving a Crow Tribe member who hunted elk on national forestland in Wyoming. The state prosecuted the man for illegal hunting, sparking a battle over treaty rights and federal versus state jurisdiction.
- Carpenter v. Murphy: This capital case argued in November raises questions about whether 3 million acres in Oklahoma are still under tribal control. A finding that the land is in fact still held by the Muscogee (Creek) Nation could have major ramifications for local energy operators.
- Thacker v. TVA: A test of the Tennessee Valley Authority's legal immunity has yet to be resolved. This case stems from a lawsuit over personal injuries sustained during maintenance work by the federally owned electric utility. The court is still weighing whether and in what cases TVA can be sued in the course of its commercial activities.
- County of Maui v. Hawai'i Wildlife Fund; and, Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP v. Upstate Forever: The Supreme Court is considering whether to take up a major Clean Water Act debate involving whether the law applies to pollution that moves through groundwater before reaching a waterway subject to federal oversight.
- Atlantic Richfield v. Christian: A fight over a Superfund site in Montana could also land on the court's docket. The case involves whether property owners can bring common law claims for restoration of a site after EPA has already approved cleanup efforts. The Supreme Court asked the Trump administration to file a brief expressing its views.
- Adorers of the Blood of Christ v. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission: Catholic nuns are asking the high court to take up their challenge to a natural gas pipeline in Pennsylvania. They say the pipeline's route across their land violates their religious freedom rights.
- Electric Power Supply Association v. Star; and, EPSA v. Rhodes: Circuit courts have upheld nuclear subsidies in both Illinois and New York. But competing power generators are asking the Supreme Court to step in and strike down the state programs.
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