Trend-spotting the hottest topics in energy

The theme for 2025: Preferential treatment of certain energy sub-sectors (fossil and dispatchable).

​Q. What might that mean for the future? 
A. A competitive dynamic reminiscent of Cold War–era arms races, where deterrence and escalation—akin to M.A.D.—drives investment and policy decisions, rather than market optimization.

Top 3 stories from 2025

1. US electricity demand surges
2. The Trump administration promotes select energy sectors at the expense of climate policy.
3. US is top global energy producer.

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Retrospective:
5 hot topics from 5 years ago (2020)

1. COVID captures global attention; economists warn of a potential “black swan” event.
2. U.S. energy consumption drops to its lowest monthly level since 9/11.
3. In May, the U.S. officially becomes a net energy exporter.
4. North America records the largest total wildfire acreage.
5. SPAC capital investments surge to new highs.​

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​What does AES trend-spotting mean? Is the energy sector chasing fads? Or, is the sector finding alternatives within the fossil fuel sector (as opposed to alternatives to fossil fuel). Contact us for more information about our data-driven insights.

Top Energy Stories in 2025, by month

​JANUARY

• On his first day in office, President Trump declares an “energy emergency,” withdraws the US from the Paris Agreement, ends the $4 billion Green Climate Fund pledge, and dismantles USAID.
• In electricity markets, natural gas and renewables are “coupling” (aka competing), with gas prices setting the benchmark while renewables+storage displace gas generation.

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​FEBRUARY

• DOGE begins layoffs across federal agencies, including energy/climate-related offices (1,000s from DoE and EPA, 10% from NOAA, etc.); and, the term "climate change" is erased from all federal government websites.
• The copper market is entering a period of heightened volatility, driven largely by rising demand for electricity and the associated growth in electrification and grid infrastructure needs.

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MARCH

• For the first time ever, all renewable energy sources supplied more than half of US electricity generation.
• SCOTUS imposes stricter limits on federal environmental reviews and permitting in City & County of San Francisco v. EPA (decided) and in Seven County Infrastructure Coalition v. Eagle County, Colorado (cert. granted).
• Indirect energy markets are surging, including SAF, EVs, autonomous mobility, ethane (for plastics/petrochemicals), and propane (uninterrupted growth since 2007).

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APRIL

• On April 2, 2025, President Trump announced “Liberation Day” tariffs, immediately impacting solar, wind, and battery storage sectors reliant on imported panels, turbines, and battery components.
• A major Iberian Peninsula blackout exposes an electricity system at risk, highlighting challenges in grid reliability and resilience amid high renewable penetration.

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MAY

• Guyana is the fastest growing oil producing nation and the fastest growing economy in the world.
• Mati Carbon wins the $50 million 2025 XPrize, a carbon capture and removal competition.

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JUNE

• Clean energy investment cancellations reaches a record $32 billion, with June accounting for the highest monthly total of $6.7 billion.
• US total oil production, including shale-driven output, sets all time record (13.58 million barrels per day) and then begins to slow.

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JULY

• President Trump signed the "One Big Beautiful Bill" into law on July 4, 2025. 
• Related, the new policies in the OBBB favored dispatchable energy sources (such as natural gas, battery storage, nuclear, and geothermal) and weakened long-term investment commitments to wind and solar.

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AUGUST

• The US sets an all-time record for monthly electricity consumption, driven by extreme heat and continued load growth from data centers.
• Gasoline is usually the dominant hydrocarbon fuel each summer; however, this year diesel has shown stronger market performance.

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SEPTEMBER

• Power markets show a very unusual pattern: natural gas prices are flat and renewable output is strong, yet average electricity prices held steady or rose.
• Record-high Arctic temperatures coincide with the lowest maximum sea-ice extent ever recorded.

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OCTOBER

• China’s EV market peaks, with a record ~1.7 million new EVs sold in a single month.
• On October 13, 75 of 89 Iranian oil tankers suddenly activated their AIS transponders for the first time in seven years. 

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NOVEMBER

• The US is the global leader in carbon capture development and deployment; and, the US is still the largest nuclear power in the world.
• Nevertheless, Department of Interior added 10 minerals to its critical minerals list, and two were unexpected: metallurgical coal (for steel making) and uranium (for nuclear power).

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DECEMBER

• The US imposes sanctions on Venezuela oil tankers, a type of policy that resembles ... piracy?
• Trump orders Department of Interior to pause all 5 OSW projects for unspecified "national security" concerns.

One word to describe the energy sector in 2025

​'Gassed'

• ​​​Grid stress
• Pricing pressure
• Regulatory friction
• Unpredictable leadership decisions
• Geopolitical/market alliances

​Retrospective - words of the year:
   ​2024:  strained
   2023:  energy security
   2022:  coercion
   2021:  vulnerable
   2020:  crisis (pandemics and fires)
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