Trend-spotting the hottest topics in energy

Top-5 hot topics when 2022 opened

1. Sustainability/ESG
2. Mining/REMs
3. Policy limits (COP26, Pres. Biden,...)
4. Hydrogen (general)
5. Carbon emission

Top-5 hot topics at the close of 2022

1. Energy security (Russia, Ukraine and Europe; US grids; etc.)
2. US policy successes (IRA; Bipartisan Infrastructure Act; AIM Act; etc.)
3. Hydrogen (in order: green, grey, blue...)
4. Transmission/pipeline infrastructure
5. US LNG exports; fusion (tie)

Retrospective:
The top-5 hottest topics five years ago (2017)

1. President Trump reverses policies
2. US LNG production
3. Battery storage
4. Smart-grids
5. Autonomous vehicles

​What does AES trend-spotting mean? Is the energy sector chasing fads? Or, is the sector finding alternatives within the fossil fuel sector (as opposed to alternatives to fossil fuel). Contact us for more information about our data-driven insights.

Top Energy Stories in 2022, by month

​JANUARY

• ​Supply/demand imbalance of lithium at its most extreme (related, there are 13 new battery gigafactories under construction in the US).
• Solar power accounts for half of new electric generating capacity in the US.

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​FEBRUARY

• Russia invades Ukraine (AES energy story of the year).
• Auxin Solar files petition with US Dept. of Commerce alleging that China circumvented anti-dumping and tariff duties.
• Global coal markets set new production records.

Surprise attack? Was Russia's invasion of Ukraine expected? 
​Consider a few events just before the invasion on February 24, 2022:

• In the two quarters before the invasion, the US was increasing exports of liquefied natural gas to Europe (exceeding Russia’s pipeline deliveries); and, production and inventories of global O&G companies (private and NOCs) were the highest in 30+ years.
• The quarter before the invasion, the US FERC fast-tracked approval of a second wave of natural gas export terminals.
• Weeks before the invasion, Kazakhstan was paralyzed by fuel riots and protests and Russia immediately sent in troops.
• On January 28, US diplomats warned Russia that "any aggressive military activity" would compromise the Nord Stream II pipeline. 
• Five days before the invasion, Ukraine conducts a 3-day energy war game to test if the country could disconnect from Russia's supply of power and fuel.

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MARCH

• Most oil majors pull investments from Russia and Western nations issue sanctions; oil prices go above $100/barrel.
• Day-ahead electricity prices in Europe triple; even the global nickel market—the "devil's mineral"—suspends trading when prices hit ~$50,000/ton.
• The gap between emission reports submitted to the United Nations by individual nations and actual emissions is 13.3 billion tons of CO2; the IPCC issues its 6th assessment: "we are running out of time."

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APRIL

• The Kremlin offers Russian oil and gas at a discount but demands payment in Russian rubles.
  
• The Bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (passed in Nov. 2021) takes effect.
  
• Two Pacific atoll nations, Abanuea and Tebua Tarawa, permanently disappear under rising sea-levels.

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MAY

• US BOEM holds the largest offshore wind lease auction in history.
  
• India and Pakistan set global records for highest temperatures (120s °F).
  
• Average retail gasoline price in the US: $4.17/gallon; Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have spare capacity and could increase output ... but won't.

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JUNE

• SCOTUS issues ruling in West Virginia vs. EPA ("Congress did not grant the EPA authority to regulate emissions from existing plants...")
• Utility-scale wind and solar set all-time generation records that will probably be broken every year going forward.
• The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere right now, 421 ppm, is the highest recorded measurement in the last million years.

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JULY

• Global natural gas prices are twice as high as this time last year.
• The EU Parliament votes to classify natural gas and nuclear as "green."
• ​President Biden asks Saudi Arabia to increase oil production in order to lower global prices; OPEC+ complies; and then...

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AUGUST

• OPEC+ reverses its agreement and reduces oil production.
  
• Inflation Reduction Act passes, authorizing $369 billion (USD)  incentives and credits.
  
• Annual global coal-fired power generation sets all-time record (10,244 terawatt-hours; China and India account for 70% of growth).

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SEPTEMBER

• Germany reverses decision and will allow continued operation of nuclear power plants.
• Scientists name a heat wave "Zoe"; 90% of all US households have air conditioning, and 88% were used in September.
• For the first time in recorded history, China’s carbon emissions will be lower this year than the previous year.

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OCTOBER

• US natural gas production sets another record; US oil refineries running at 92-93% capacity.
• There is 1 terawatt of utility-scale renewable energy waiting for permitting approval to connect to the US grid.
• India stops buying oil from Russia at discounted prices.​

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NOVEMBER

• ​​COP27 lowlights: clean energy investments in emerging and developing economies, excluding China, has been flat since Paris Agreement (2015); COP delegates don't get food or water. COP27's most significant contribution? A massive carbon footprint due to traveling delegates.
• Diesel at historically low levels (Eastern Europe and US Northeast are most vulnerable).

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DECEMBER

• ​​3 busy days in energy markets, December 4 - 6 (OPEC+, embargo and price cap on Russia, California OSW auction.
• Nuclear had a good year: the EU says it's "green", COP27 says it is sustainable, and the US will cover costs to preserve the existing fleet.
• Winter storm Elliott caused record outages throughout the US, but so did domestic terrorists shooting transformers in Washington, Ohio, North Carolina, Texas....
• Fusion ignition achieved at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL).

ONE WORD TO DESCRIBE THE ENERGY SECTOR IN 2022?

'CONFLICT'

There are a lot of words that can be used to describe the energy sector in 2022; however, we believe that "conflict" best captures the themes that defined 2022.

Consider just a few examples ...  

• The weaponization of energy by Russia.
• The manipulation of markets by OPEC+.
• The polarization of partisan politics in the US.
• The exploitation of developing countries by China and its Belt & Road Initiative.
• The frustration of the EU with Germany's self-interest.

 
What is your best single word to describe 2022? 
 
The most common word submitted by AES Members was "coercion," but our favorite word that was submitted by an AES member is "ostrich."
  
Note: the word that AES Editors' used to describe 2021 was "vulnerable," which seems prescient in hindsight.​